Readers'AlternativeHypotheses

Dreaded alternative hypotheses.

You all answered my challenge much more heartily than I guessed you would.  Science and non-science friends rose to the fun.  They are GREAT hypotheses too.

 I’ve simply pasted them into another blog I started called “Alternative Hypotheses”. 

http://billyssabbaticalalternative.blogspot.com/

Not that I don’t want them to “clutter” this blog, but mainly to keep them where I know they are.  Alternative hypotheses have a way of “getting lost”.  Lost hypotheses can haunt you if they turn out to be correct.

Here’s my processing of these very cool gems.  Thank you all for playing this game of science with me.

1.) Among the non-scientists, Jeff suggested higher densities in the reserve makes animals more aggressive, this spills over on their feeding habits.  This is a cool hypothesis that mirrors modern research on the ecological role of “personality” in nature. Way to go Jeff.

2.) Semi wants more information.  She suspects the students want to please me or get a job or something.  That’s all true, and others (see below) bring up observer bias as a possibility.  Nice, Semi.

3.) Rob has two alternatives.  First, he thinks the fact that we are dropping the sea hares “out of the sky” may be artifactual.  First, the sea hares may be changed by that unusual circumstance making them more attractive than their wild, firmly attached brethren.  Good idea.  The sea hares are DEFINITELY not the same as in nature.  They go limp, and spread out their sea hare wings. 

4.) Rob’s second idea:  Crowding makes them more aggressive.  Sounds like Jeff’s idea.  Are you two friends? (answer yes.  Coincidence?)

5.) Rob has a REALLY cool idea about how to test our idea.  He suggests there might be a way to chemically test for sea-hare-specific chemicals in lobsters’ tissue, similarly to how C4 carbon signature in modern humans tells us we eat LOTS of corn.  This is a fucking rocking idea there, mr. Rob.  Not an alternative but a very cool test.  I’m guessing there IS a way to do this.  Sea hares are noted for their unique distasteful, hard-to-break-down compounds.  I’m betting there is a way to test for them.

6.) Dave’s alternative hypothesis was hidden in a cryptic poem.  I can’t figure it out.  Can you?

7.) Only one student bit.  This tells us a lot about students.  His idea is very cool.  Lobsters in preserves are used to getting handouts!  Their shyness of big divers is overcome by this experience of getting handouts.  Way to go, John.  Will you come work for me?

8.) Two scientists contributed.  Klaus from Sweden wants to know why lobsters tend NOT to attack sea hares.  It is because the sea hares sequester lots of nasty chemicals from the red algae they eat into their flesh.  They also actively secrete ink and a gooey yuchy substance called opaline when they are attacked.

9.)  Klaus wonders what happens when we give lobsters juicy, tasty food, like squid or mackerel or something.  Maybe they don’t want anything at all!  His hypothesis is that non-attacking lobsters are just not hungry for anything at all.  This is a GREAT idea.  We’ve been talking about it.  There was a white shark sighted a few months ago swimming around a couple of divers maybe a mile from here.  Gerry says they are definitely out there, at least young 10-12 ft guys.  We are still a bit spooked at night down there.  The morays are scary enough.  We ARE going to do this, but we have to get a courage transplant first.

10.) Klaus doubts that sensitization can really protect a sea hare from a lobster.  I wonder that too.  We are trying to set up a cage experiment to test this question (more later).

 11.) Chris from Chapman wonders about observer bias.  He knows how sweet-natured my students are, and suggests they don’t want to disappoint me, and might be giving sea hares much more gently while in the preserve.  He suggests blindfolding them till they get underwater at particular spots.  I LOVE this idea.  Not sure I will do it, but what fun if would be.

 12.) Chris’ related alternative is that density per se makes lobsters hungry.  Like we all get in a crowded restaurant.  Cool idea.  We will definitely test this one.

 

Readers'AlternativeHypotheses

Dreaded alternative hypotheses. You all answered my challenge much more heartily than I guessed you would. Science and non-science friends alike rose to the challenge. They are GREAT hypotheses too. I’ve simply pasted them into another blog I started called “Alternative Hypotheses”. http://billyssabbaticalalternative.blogspot.com/ Not that I don’t want them to “clutter” this blog, but mainly to keep them where I know they are. Alternative hypotheses have a way of “getting lost”. Lost hypotheses can haunt you if they turn out to be correct. Here’s my processing of these very cool gems. Thank you all for playing this game of science with me. 1.) Among the non-scientists, Jeff suggested higher densities in the reserve makes animals more aggressive, this spills over on their feeding habits. This is a cool hypothesis that mirrors modern research on the ecological role of “personality” in nature. Way to go Jeff. 2.) Semi wants more information. She suspects the students want to please me or get a job or something. That’s all true, and others (see below) bring up observer bias as a possibility. Nice, Semi. 3.) Rob has two alternatives. First, he thinks the fact that we are dropping the sea hares “out of the sky” may be artifactual. First, the sea hares may be changed by that unusual circumstance making them more attractive than their wild, firmly attached brethren. Good idea. The sea hares are DEFINITELY not the same as in nature. They go limp, and spread out their sea hare wings. 4.) Rob’s second idea: Crowding makes them more aggressive. Sounds like Jeff’s idea. Are you two friends? (answer yes. Coincidence?) 5.) Rob has a REALLY cool idea about how to test our idea. He suggests there might be a way to chemically test for sea-hare-specific chemicals in lobsters’ tissue, similarly to how C4 carbon signature in modern humans tells us we eat LOTS of corn. This is a fucking rocking idea there, mr. Rob. Not an alternative but a very cool test. I’m guessing there IS a way to do this. Sea hares are noted for their unique distasteful, hard-to-break-down compounds. I’m betting there is a way to test for them. 6.) Dave’s alternative hypothesis was hidden in a cryptic poem. I can’t figure it out. Can you? 7.) Only one student bit. This tells us a lot about students. His idea is very cool. Lobsters in preserves are used to getting handouts! Their shyness of big divers is overcome by this experience of getting handouts. Way to go, John. Will you come work for me? 8.) Two scientists contributed. Klaus from Sweden wants to know why lobsters tend NOT to attack sea hares. It is because the sea hares sequester lots of nasty chemicals from the red algae they eat into their flesh. They also actively secrete ink and a gooey yuchy substance called opaline when they are attacked. 9.) Klaus wonders what happens when we give lobsters juicy, tasty food, like squid or mackerel or something. Maybe they don’t want anything at all! His hypothesis is that non-attacking lobsters are just not hungry for anything at all. This is a GREAT idea. We’ve been talking about it. There was a white shark sighted a few months ago swimming around a couple of divers maybe a mile from here. Gerry says they are definitely out there, at least young 10-12 ft guys. We are still a bit spooked at night down there. The morays are scary enough. We ARE going to do this, but we have to get a courage transplant first. 10.) Klaus doubts that sensitization can really protect a sea hare from a lobster. I wonder that too. We are trying to set up a cage experiment to test this question (more later). 11.) Chris from Chapman wonders about observer bias. He knows how sweet-natured my students are, and suggests they don’t want to disappoint me, and might be giving sea hares much more gently while in the preserve. He suggests blindfolding them till they get underwater at particular spots. I LOVE this idea. Not sure I will do it, but what fun if would be.

12.) Chris’ related alternative is that density per se makes lobsters hungry. Like we all get in a crowded restaurant. Cool idea. We will definitely test this one.

Science means scraping off everything that isn't true.

So, the Buccaneer Days, and lobster opening, and nasty-ass gale all marked the end of the first part of this sabbatical research.  These interruptions allowed us to stop and take stock and think about all the possibilities that are no more.   We’ve started to chisel away alternatives.  Let's talk about what I mean.

 Prior to coming here, we knew:

a.      Almost no one we’ve heard of had ever seen a lobster attack  a sea hare.

b.      A trio of undergraduates witnessed two such attacks in the Wrigley Big Fisherman’s reserve two summers ago.

c.      Starved lobsters will eat sea hares in the lab.

 Our hypothesis, our best, most hopeful guess, was that lobsters in reserves, where they have been protected for at least several years, attack sea hares.  They do this because their protected status means their greater biomass (more of them, and bigger individuals) in the shallow subtidal puts pressure on their food supply.  Less food means hungrier lobsters.  Hungrier lobsters eat species they would not otherwise touch (e.g., sea hares, but also sea urchins, and other defended invertebrates). 

 Note that this hypothesis is one of convenience.  It is what we call “parsimonious. “ It most simply unites our two main observations, that starved lobsters in the lab and wild lobsters at fisherman’s cove perform an otherwise rare behavior of attacking sea hares.  Parsimony feels good, but it only gets us so far.  Until we start removing alternatives, we’ve only traveled down the science road a short way.

 Let’s list some alternative possibilities, given the above observations:

a.            The two observed attacks were an anomaly.  Perhaps these inexperienced students “overinterpeted” their observations to please their professor. 

b.            Perhaps there is something about living in groups in caves that predispose lobsters to attack sea hares.   Other divers would never present a sea hare to lobsters in a group.  Instead they would try and catch the lobsters!

c.            Lobsters attack only at Fisherman’s cove for some unnatural reason, e.g., the steady bright light on the pier alters lobster behavior.

d.            Lobsters attack sea hares all over Catalina Island because its water is exceedingly clean.

e.            The act of presenting sea hares to lobsters, usually you just drop them out of the water column onto the lobsters’ antennae, is irrelevant to how they encounter each other in nature.

 I love to make lists of alternative hypotheses.  A beautiful hypothesis is simply that, regardless if it is your pet or your alternative.  I like b. above.  If groups were key, that would be very interesting.  Going that direction would be fun.

But I also DREAD lists of alternatives.  You know why?  Because my list is never complete.  It’s like that game when someone writes a word you try to make as many words out of the letters as you can.  There’s ALWAYS at least a word or two you didn’t get (you know this cause others playing the same letters get additional words every time). In science, you never know if you’ve missed a good idea.  Your nightmare is that some colleague will raise an alternative that you missed, that is consistent with your data, and that turns out to be right! 

Now, in my old age, I’ve actually come to see this nightmare as something of a comfort:  Having colleagues out there, who actually listen hard to your crazy ideas and observations, and then bring their own experience to bear on the question, and politely give you a brilliant alternative hypothesis.  This is one of the amazing moments of the scientific process.  But it hurts, too.  “Why didn’t I think of that?”

Ok, here’s an exercise.  You all give me alternative hypotheses!  Look at the three observations and invent an explanation.

 Cmon, I bet you can do it.  If you can write a limerick, or a Haiku, you can invent an innovative alternative.  Humor is good.  Actually ANY hypothesis is good.  Everyone should invent one or two hypotheses a day.  Most people invent many, many more.

 So email me back (and I’ll post your hypotheses), or just post your hypotheses on the blog (please identify yourself so I can have some fun with it).  I’ll check back in a day or so and compile the list!

Weather trumps research

Sitting in the commodore’s lounge on the Catalina Express (had to upgrade just to get a ticket). Just drank my complimentary mixed drink.  Boat hasn’t left yet.  People still piling on. Unbelievably obnoxious pirates in the commodore’s lounge, still drunk.  But they are all laughing and laughing and laughing.  I can’t help feeling a bit jealous.  If only I could be like that.

Last night was a rough one.  After our dive we entered the data and notes and the boys went back to the apartment, and I back to Siwash.  She was bucking all over, as the waves from the gale got nastier and nastier.  But the mooring is a good one.  I didn’t sleep so well, but everything held.  This morning, the wind hadn’t yet arrived so I took the whaler in to the lab and checked the weather.  Down-graded from gale to small-craft warnings (20-30 kts, instead of 25-35).   Still, it was starting to get nasty.  I called John and Dan and we took the whaler out there.  Started the engine, wind piping to 20 kts.  Let go of the mooring, Siwash’s bow falling off the wind right toward the frothy shore.  Big Fisherman’s cove has an ugly lee shore.  It is well protected from all kinds of wind, but it is a perfect trap for a boat in a Northwesterly wind, the deep bay trapping any hapless sail boat trying to tack her way out.  But we are under power.  The propeller finally doing its work, Siwash moves forward and turns back upwind, and out.  10 minutes of slop and we come into the bay at Two Harbors.  Get a nice mooring up against the west cliff.

John and Dan and I drive the whaler back to Fisherman’s and helped Gerry separate the two docks so they don’t bang themselves to death in the swell.  Then we walk up the gangway. Gerry hauls the gangway off the inshore dock, leaving the dock safe, but unusable.  We take a car to the ferry (without my dirty clothes).

The Catalina Express is finally pulling out. Wind howling offshore.  Siwash is nicely tucked over in the west corner of the bay at Two Harbors. Siwash’s weepy side is exposed to the bay.  Two rows back, by God is Jada.  Jada was Grandad’s upgrade when he gave Siwash to Dad in 1960 or so.  A beautiful, powerful, yawl.  I think she is a charter boat in San Diego.  But there she is, very close to Siwash at two harbors.  That’s how it was for a couple of decades at Howland’s cove when I was growing up.  Siwash one row closer to shore with my brothers and parents and me, and Jada next row out with Grandad and Gramma and guests.  I used to love swimming out to Jada, begging a coke, and warming my belly on her teak decks.

Man the waves are BIG.  The crowd is getting less jovial.  Laughter turning to “oh my god.” and “better take a Xanex”.  Big Fisherman’s looks like a washing machine as we go by.  The docks are separated, the gangway lifted.  Gerry’s world is under control.  Looks to be  blowing 25-30 knots out here.  Isolated sailboats, most of them mainly out of control.  They’re handing out sea-sick bags on this boat.  People are taking them.   Just took a big wave, spraying all over. The skipper is slowing the boat down a bit every time he comes to a wave.  Cabin is deathly quiet.  Boat gets on a quartering swell and does a semi-broach, leaning just a little too far down wind as she turns upwind.  Woah, just did it again.  Everyone else laughing. 

Not me.  It reminds me of a black night in 30 knots of wind, sailing on my older brother’s “pocket rocket” Presto (a “Moore 24”, 2000 lbs and 24 ft) back in the 80s.   We were racing, against a bunch of other crazies, from San Francisco to San Diego.  Wind had piped up 10 knots from what it was during my last watch in the daylight.  I got the helm in the pitch dark before my eyes had accommodated.  Flying along at 15-20 knots, a speed-boat with a sail.  Tripped on a wave I couldn’t see, and sent Presto into a full broach.  Sails flopping like flags.  The boat completely laid out sideways with deck vertical.  Hanging on to the “life rail”, cause if I let go, I’d fall straight down into the sea.  Gives me butterflies just thinking about it.   Here’s the idea. Now make the boat much tinier and the ocean much larger.

Wondering what I’d do if this skipper broached this big ole ferry boat.  I don’t have any idea.  The thought fills me with black.  The pirates have no such baggage.  They are still laughing.  But here we are, after all, turning around Angel’s gate and into the harbor; cheated death again.

So, “to conclude”, the research of yesterday turned inexorably to a water day today.  Strapping things down, adjusting to the storm.  No diving for Dan and John today.  Probably not tomorrow either.  Have to let this angry sea settle down a little.  I get my 2 days shore leave, and then back at it.

Birth, Death, and Lobsters

33 years ago (yesterday), my daughter Sara was born.  I was 8 years younger than she is now.  In the scramble of yesterday I forgot her birthday.  Until a bunch of workers were standing around the waterfront talking about the guy who died yesterday. 

“How old was he?”

“I dunno, he was born in 1976.  You figure it out.”

1976 was when Sara was born.  Yesterday.  

The deadman's birth year reminded me to call my girl.  I didn’t yesterday, but will today.

So the intrepid divers took out last night into the teeth of the brewing gale.  We lost one of the extras so we all 5 went in one of the Wrigley boats, extra wide, plenty of room.  Heading up to the Invertebrate Preserve (see Map).  By the time we got there, the swell was probably 3-4 feet and the visibility was close to zero.  Ok, back we go.  On the way home we rode some of those waves and hooted and hollered.  Got chased by a guy paranoid about his dozen hoop nets intended to catch lobsters.  Hoop nets are different than traps.  Hoop nets are collapsed on the bottom with a can of cat food in the middle.  The lobsters come for the cat food and munch on it for an hour till the operator pulls up quick and brings the lobster with the net.  A trap is only used by the commercial guys on the south side of the island.  They are illegal on this side.  Anyway, some guy chased us real close.  He was dressed like a pirate, and said Arrr, as he turned away.

Next stop, Big Fisherman’s cove.  Mike and I “tended” the skiff, while the other 3 dove.  It was getting pretty lumpy.  They got 9 presentations.  4 attacks!  This story is starting to get pretty consistent.  Even in bad weather the preserve lobsters attack.

Here’s the cool thing though.  We took a couple of the attackers into the lab.  Our intention is to see how long before they start attacking sea hares in the lab.  Usually it takes the lobsters a week or so to get used to the lab, and another 5-7 weeks to get hungry enough to eat sea hares.

But just for kicks we laid a sea hare on top of the biggest guy.  He attacked it big time!

Not 8 weeks, not 2 weeks, not one week, not one day.  20 min after being released into the tank he was ready to eat sea hare.  

Meanwhile, chop’s getting bigger.  I go out to Siwash to spend the night as the gale builds. 

More tomorrow.

Death, Gales, and Pirates

Swimming hard this morning.  The LA County sheriff’s helicopter taking off over my breathing shoulder.  Watching it whupping by every time I turn my head to breathe.  The helo is carrying a stiff.  A diving stiff.  Some 33-year-old was diving for lobsters all night.  Third dive.  Rapid ascent from 85 feet said his dive computer, but he had lost contact with his buddy, so no one knows why.  DOA at 4AM.  They put him in the chamber and took him down to 160 feet anyway.  They’ve saved some pretty dead divers that way in the past.  But not this one.

It’s kind of sobering.  I figured out what happened when the helicopter turned off its engines after it landed.  If there is someone alive, they keep the rotors going, and take off as soon as they can.  But not this morning.

But I keep swimming.  Turning the corner into Chalk Cove and the hordes of boats anchored there. 

This weekend is Buccaneer Days at Two Harbors.  A long tradition.  Everyone comes into shore dressed as a pirate and they drink grog and eat meat and be obnoxious.  This morning they mostly had hangovers. 

100 strokes past the buoy means 0.8 miles.  My favorite harbor seal comes under me on the way home and peers with his big eyes at me.  Always startles me, cause he is so big compared to the fish I see.  But he reminds me of our cat, Blue.  Startle is what he wants to do.

Last night we had a big dive.  “We” became not just John and Dan and me.  We recruited three more certified divers.  One from our class last June (Jacob), one is an assistant for the CSU invertebrate zoology class (Andy).  One from my childhood (Mike), who also happens to dive out here a lot and is ok’d to dive with me. 

We scrounged up (borrowed, and bought) extra running lights and dive lights and charged up both cameras.  Last night was the start of the lobster season.  That’s why people were diving after midnight.  The season actually starts at 12:01.  We wanted to get behavior data from the Out-Of-Preserve lobsters before they got spooked by all the divers.  So that’s what we did.  Happy to say the ‘hypothesis’ is still alive.  Close to 30 presentations of sea hares to lobsters at these three sites.  No attacks, 2 or 3 weak pounces.  These guys have plenty of food.  Don’t need to eat sea hares.  The map shows the same stuff as last time, only I’ve added blue dots from last night’s dive.  Cool, huh?

So that means we’ve got 5 dives outside the reserve, and they all point to the same conclusion.  Lobsters don’t want sea hares out there.  Tonight we go to the preserves. 

But there is a catch.  The NOAA weather is forecasting monster winds tonight.  Cmon.  I’m looking at the ocean.  It’s just a normal westerly.  Fine, says the forecast, but late tonight is a GALE.  A gale?  What the hell?  This is Catalina.  Southern California.  We don’t have friggin gales.  Must be some mistake.  But they’ve been saying it now for 24 hours at least.  They aren’t backing down.

So, I put the little dinghy up on its chalks on Siwash.  Lashed the awning down.  Ran the engine.  Strung an extra line to the mooring chain.  Gerry says the chain will hold, but the line might chafe.  Best to have an extra strung.  I’m leaving tomorrow.  But the gale is supposed to peak midday tomorrow. 

Stay tuned!

Matilda underwater

This video of my grandaughter is exactly how I feel underwater.  I grab for my depth gauge and can't find it.  My light bangs into my face. Everything is so damn overwhelming, but all you can do is just concentrate harder.  Watch her do it.  It's amazing.  She even looks up and considers swimming back to the surface and going back to the boat and drinking some wine and eating some chocolate.